Daily Brief Track Record

The [US/Italian nuclear] agreements signal a renaissance of nuclear energy not only in Italy, but in most of Europe, as other sources are not yet sufficient to satisfy the continent's energy needs.

Africa faces significant potential fallout from the real-economy impacts of the global disruption. [...] A number of countries face rising inflation and other macroeconomic imbalances, including current account deficits. [...] Reductions in export earnings, private capital inflows, remittances and foreign aid can be expected as the global recession deepens. Africa is unlikely to be able to sustain its recent much improved growth performance.

Beijing needs rapid growth to generate employment and reduce the risk of unrest. [...] The recovery this year has been driven by high investment and surging bank credit. Neither is sustainable in the long term. [...] [Chinese] consumption will continue to disappoint as a putative primary engine of growth. [...] Risks to trade from trade conflicts are mounting.

Minority Government in Portugal - The most probable scenario is for the Socialists to govern in a minority. Political instability is set to return in the coming years.

The new government has acted swiftly to expose corruption under the previous government… Borisov’s cabinet is sincerely devoted to cleaning up Bulgaria’s tarnished image among its EU partners.

While some sources within the administration suggest that Washington would be content overseeing a 'clean' electoral process and accept any outcome, there are many signals to the contrary. Reports of Karzai appointing loyalists in the electoral commission and in the provincial administrations suggest that he is trying to tilt the process in his favour… US intervention to reduce bias in the electoral process could potentially elicit accusations of interference from the Afghan government and be very destabilising.

Growing diplomatic tensions have left Colombia increasingly isolated. Unless a marked shift takes place, the current crisis could further disrupt regional trade and possibly lead to military standoff… In the absence of a robust diplomatic exchange or greater outside mediation, Colombia will remain caught in a cycle of tense relations with neighbours, and short-term crises, for the foreseeable future.

While some officials may lose their jobs over perceived failings since [the Uighur riots] this probably would not appease those who want the authorities to take action to ensure their security. Beijing will be particularly concerned to stop anti-government feeling from growing in Xinjiang and to prevent any spill over into other localities where dissatisfaction with the authorities may be high.

Better-than-expected unemployment and inflation figures in June suggest that the Central Bank may hold the benchmark Selic rate at 8.75% for the remainder of the year.

Uganda will view Otiak’s capture as a major success , as it underscores the fact that the LRA no longer presents a primary threat to Ugandan security – but now rather to the DRC, CAR and Southern Sudan.

[2008’s] budget may come to represent the high point of defence spending, as pressure to control the growth of outlays is likely to increase in the coming years. [...] The next president will be left to determine the fate of the Air Force's F-22 advanced fighter jet. While 20 aircraft are to be procured during the 2009 fiscal year, no funds are requested to either close the production line or produce more aircraft in the following years.

Xinjiang is a rising security risk… The overwhelmingly Muslim affiliation of Xinjiang's minority population is the source of secessionist sentiment in the region, and fuels concern in Beijing. [...] Resource and related infrastructure development is increasing China's strategic reliance on the region, raising the level of security risk for Beijing in Xinjiang.

The ICC challenge to Bashir has divided opinion in Sudan. However, it has not caused the government to suspend implementation of the CPA, nor has it otherwise caused deadlock in government and politics.

The mechanical nature of the award process may result in different results than Iraq hopes for. Some fields…may attract quite limited interest and will either not be awarded or may fall to firms that Iraq considers too small to develop the fields. These outcomes could tempt the Ministry of Oil to try to reshape consortia after the award. [...] The bid rounds may witness gradual adaptation as they unfold, with long-term licences being negotiated back into simpler short-term EPC contracts… In this manner, both the Iraqi government and foreign oil firms can lower the political profile of deals and start working on more modest contracts that meet near-term Iraqi needs.

Policymakers will accumulate dollars for as long as dollars are the reference in international trade…[the] Dollar’s status will stay secure.

On September 12, the US Treasury froze the assets of former Venezuelan Interior Minister Ramon Rodriguez Chacin (who resigned last week) and two senior intelligence officials, … on the grounds that they had ‘materially assisted’ drug trafficking by the Colombian FARC rebels. The announcement, which came one day after President Hugo Chavez expelled the US ambassador, further reinforces the belief that Caracas will come in for especially strong criticism. [...] The Venezuelan government anticipates heavy criticism this year.

Spending cuts in the coming months could increasingly motivate [local Governors] to distance themselves publicly from the Kirchners in future.

With US housing prices still falling rapidly, and with home foreclosures hitting new records, it is unreasonable to expect the housing market to stabilise before the second half of 2009.

Rural India has been experiencing sustained growth and structural transformation. This will help support the national economy by offsetting the current sharp downturn in urban middle-class employment, property values and consumption.