Track Record

The [US/Italian nuclear] agreements signal a renaissance of nuclear energy not only in Italy, but in most of Europe, as other sources are not yet sufficient to satisfy the continent's energy needs.

Africa faces significant potential fallout from the real-economy impacts of the global disruption. [...] A number of countries face rising inflation and other macroeconomic imbalances, including current account deficits. [...] Reductions in export earnings, private capital inflows, remittances and foreign aid can be expected as the global recession deepens. Africa is unlikely to be able to sustain its recent much improved growth performance.

Beijing needs rapid growth to generate employment and reduce the risk of unrest. [...] The recovery this year has been driven by high investment and surging bank credit. Neither is sustainable in the long term. [...] [Chinese] consumption will continue to disappoint as a putative primary engine of growth. [...] Risks to trade from trade conflicts are mounting.

Minority Government in Portugal - The most probable scenario is for the Socialists to govern in a minority. Political instability is set to return in the coming years.

The new government has acted swiftly to expose corruption under the previous government… Borisov’s cabinet is sincerely devoted to cleaning up Bulgaria’s tarnished image among its EU partners.

While some sources within the administration suggest that Washington would be content overseeing a 'clean' electoral process and accept any outcome, there are many signals to the contrary. Reports of Karzai appointing loyalists in the electoral commission and in the provincial administrations suggest that he is trying to tilt the process in his favour… US intervention to reduce bias in the electoral process could potentially elicit accusations of interference from the Afghan government and be very destabilising.

Growing diplomatic tensions have left Colombia increasingly isolated. Unless a marked shift takes place, the current crisis could further disrupt regional trade and possibly lead to military standoff… In the absence of a robust diplomatic exchange or greater outside mediation, Colombia will remain caught in a cycle of tense relations with neighbours, and short-term crises, for the foreseeable future.

While some officials may lose their jobs over perceived failings since [the Uighur riots] this probably would not appease those who want the authorities to take action to ensure their security. Beijing will be particularly concerned to stop anti-government feeling from growing in Xinjiang and to prevent any spill over into other localities where dissatisfaction with the authorities may be high.

Better-than-expected unemployment and inflation figures in June suggest that the Central Bank may hold the benchmark Selic rate at 8.75% for the remainder of the year.

Uganda will view Otiak’s capture as a major success , as it underscores the fact that the LRA no longer presents a primary threat to Ugandan security – but now rather to the DRC, CAR and Southern Sudan.