Risk

Falling dominos

Managing risk often makes the difference between organisations that endure and those that become a historical footnote. We help identify, assess and manage multiple forms of risks, providing an external perspective to your risk management systems.

  • Expert panels and surveys draw insights from a wide range of country, issue and sector experts with a view to identifying new and emerging risks.
  • We apply scenario planning and trend analysis to help you identify and assess risks, perform sensitivity analysis on your portfolios and prepare contingency plans.
  • Our risk mapping services identify vulnerabilities throughout your value chain.
  • Early warning services - an intensive monitoring of political, social and regulatory developments - help you track a wide range of risks to your business.

Country and political risk

We provide highly customised country and political risk analysis to businesses and investors that are considering new investments or have established operations with significant assets and value at risk.  Country and political risk is not only a function of a country’s political and economic circumstances but is also heavily dependent on the nature of the investment and the specific sector concerned.  Our risk analysis services explore how political dynamics and stakeholder interests interact with regulation and competitive dynamics to impact key business drivers.   We also assist investors in developing strategies for mitigating and managing risks in an informed and pro-active manner.

Political risk audit

In partnership with a global insurance company, we offer the Political Risk Audit, a proprietary financial analysis software tool that enables companies to prioritise and manage their global political risk exposures. The risk analysis is quantitative and specific to the client's industry. It covers political risk perils including expropriation, forced abandonment, political violence, contract frustration, and currency inconvertibility. The Political Risk Audit is best suited to companies with a large number of global exposures (10+ countries). The resulting report is appropriate for senior management and board level executives.

Regulatory risk

Regulation is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty for business.  It has the ability to transform markets and shape business success – even survival.  We assist organisations in monitoring and analysing regulatory developments that could impact their ability to achieve their business objectives.  Our wide network of experts allows us to provide extensive geographical coverage across a number of sectors.  We also support organisations in developing regulatory strategies with the aim of protecting or enhancing their competitive position while meeting broader sustainability objectives.

Scenario-based stress testing

Scenario-based stress testing is an important risk management technique that evolved in the financial sector and now is a regulatory requirement in some jurisdictions. This method is increasingly adopted by companies in a wide range of sectors as a leading practice in dealing with vulnerability to unexpected geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks. Oxford Analytica’s services in this area combine expert analysis with global macroeconomic modelling to produce a stress testing service that is forward-looking, rather than derived from historical event scenarios.

Supply chain and logistics risks

With globalisation, supply chains have become more geographically dispersed and efficient. They have also become increasingly vulnerable to disruptions from factors outside of an organisation’s control, whether it be contamination of supplies, scarcity of raw materials, or disruption of trade routes.  Our risk analysis services assist companies in undertaking a comprehensive mapping of risks to their supply chains and logistics with a view to identifying vulnerabilities that could impact the ability to obtain key inputs or access their end-customers.

Case Study

Risk Model for Sub-Saharan Africa

The Client

A bilateral lending agency

The Issue

The lending agency was considering increasing their loan portfolio in Sub-Saharan Africa.

They needed a risk analysis tool to determine how much to commit and rates of return reflecting risk levels in individual countries.

The Approach

With input from the client, our consultants developed a risk model tailored to the specific types of risk to which their portfolio could be exposed.

Our country experts then prepared a detailed analysis of the various risk drivers for eight Sub-Saharan African countries. The analysis covered a range of over 50 political, economic and social factors.

Our experts assigned risk ratings to each individual risk and we developed an overall risk rating for each country. The ratings served as the baseline for an ongoing monitoring of risks in the eight countries.

The Result

The agency used our risk assessments to determine acceptable exposure levels and to set hurdle rates.